About Russia-Ukraine War

Two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has recaptured 54% of occupied territory, but Russia still occupies 18% of the country. Ukraine’s counterattack efforts have stalled, and Russia has opened a new front in the Kharkiv region in the northeast. Meanwhile, Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian cities and blockade  ports, and Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian ships and infrastructure.  Ukraine has received about $278 billion in aid since January 2022, including $75 billion from the United States, but has warned of aid fatigue. Fighting and airstrikes have killed more than 30,000 civilians, displaced 3.7 million people inside Ukraine, and forced 6.5 million to flee Ukraine. 14.6 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.  

Background

Armed conflict erupted in eastern Ukraine in early 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea. This followed violent demonstrations in Kiev against President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of an EU economic integration agreement. In February 2014, President Yanukovych fled amid escalating protests, and in March, Russian forces took control of Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the need to protect the rights of Russian citizens and speakers in Crimea and southeastern Ukraine, leading to Russia’s formal annexation of Crimea following a disputed referendum by Crimean residents to join the Russian Federation.

The crisis worsened ethnic divisions, leading to pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk holding independence referendums two months later. Armed conflict then erupted between Russian-backed forces and Ukrainian troops. Despite Russia denying military involvement, Ukraine and NATO noted a buildup of Russian troops and equipment near Donetsk, along with artillery shelling along the Russian border after Crimea’s annexation. The conflict resulted in a stalemate, marked by frequent shelling and fighting along the front lines in the eastern border region.

In February 2015, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine initiated negotiations to end the violence via the Minsk Agreement, which included a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, and full Ukrainian control over the conflict area. Efforts for a diplomatic agreement have seen little success.

In April 2016, NATO announced the deployment of four battalions to Eastern Europe. The troops will tour Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, and are meant to deter possible future Russian aggression in other parts of the continent, particularly  the Baltic states. In September 2017, the United States  deployed two U.S. Army armored brigades to Poland to further strengthen NATO’s presence in the region.

In January 2018, the United States imposed new sanctions on 21 individuals (including several Russian officials) and nine companies involved in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. In March 2018, the U.S. State Department  approved the sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the first sale of lethal weapons since the start of the conflict. In October 2018, Ukraine participated in a series of large-scale air exercises in western Ukraine with the United States and seven other NATO nations. The exercises came after Russia conducted its largest annual military exercises  since the collapse of the Soviet Union in September 2018. 

In October 2021, after months of intelligence  and monitoring of Russian troop movements, buildups, and funding for military contingency plans, the White House briefed senior American intelligence, military, and diplomatic officials on the almost certainty of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the days and weeks leading up to the invasion, President Joe Biden’s administration made the unconventional decision to ease restrictions on information sharing and allow for a broader dissemination of intelligence and findings to allies, including Ukraine, and to the public. The purpose of this strategy was to bolster allied defenses and deter Russian aggressive actions. 

In early February 2022, satellite images showed the largest  Russian military presence on the Belarusian border  since the end of the Cold War. Negotiations between the United States, Russia, and European countries, including France and Germany, failed to reach a solution. In late February 2022, the United States warned of Russia’s intention to invade Ukraine, citing Russia’s expanding military presence on the Russian-Ukrainian border. President Putin subsequently ordered the deployment of troops to Luhansk and Donetsk, claiming that the troops were playing a “peacekeeping” role.

The United States responded a few days later by imposing sanctions on these areas and on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. However, until the moment of the invasion, the US and Ukrainian leadership still did not agree on the nature and possibility of the Russian armed threat. Ukrainian officials downplayed the possibility of an invasion and delayed the mobilization of the army and reserve forces.

On February 24, 2022, in a final attempt to dissuade the UN Security Council  from attacking Ukraine, President Putin announced the launch of a full-scale  invasion of Ukraine from land, sea and air. The operation targets military installations and cities throughout Ukraine. According to Putin, the objective of the operation was to de-Nazify and demilitarize Ukraine and put an end to the alleged genocide of Russians on Ukrainian territory. US President Joe Biden called the attack “unprovoked and unjustified” and imposed tough sanctions on Putin, Kremlin officials including  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, four major Russian banks, and  in coordination with European allies, Russia’s oil and gas industry. gas industry.

Recent developments

However, the offensive made little progress and deteriorated into a months-long siege of Bakhmut, a city of little strategic value with a pre-war population of 70,000.

The United States estimates that Russia suffered 100,000 casualties at Bakhmut, including 20,000 killed. Ukraine also suffered heavy losses in urban fighting.

Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam to thwart an attack in the southeast.

In June 2023, Ukraine launched its long-awaited counter-offensive, attempting to break through Russian defenses in the eastern Donetsk Oblast, including the Bakhmut region, and in the southern Zaporizhia Oblast, which forms the ‘‘land route‘‘ to Crimea.

Ukrainian forces encountered fierce resistance and suffered heavy losses due to strengthened Russian defensive positions, air superiority, and minefields.

Since February 24, 2022, the United States has pledged about $40 billion in assistance to Ukraine, including $19 billion in immediate military assistance and $16 billion in humanitarian assistance.

In addition, the Biden administration approved the deployment of increasingly modern weaponry in early 2023, including Patriot air defense systems and state-of-the-art main battle tanks, which are essential for defense against Russian air attacks.

On June 23, Putin faced a major internal challenge when Yevgeniy Prigozhin released a video claiming the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) shelled Wagner forces and announced a “march of justice” to unseat the military leadership. The mutiny followed months of tensions with the MoD, which Prigozhin often insulted and accused of not supplying adequate munitions, and an attempt by the MoD to reign in Wagner fighters.

Wagner forces quickly occupied Rostov-on-Don and seized Russia’s southern military headquarters. Wagner convoys then advanced more than halfway to Moscow; Putin declared the march “treason” and offered amnesty for soldiers who stopped.

On June 24, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko negotiated for Wagner soldiers to return to their bases and for Prigozhin to move to Belarus. Two months after the revolt, Prigozhin died in a private plane crash outside of Moscow. This assessment resulted in months of tensions between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy over strategy and tactics.

On February 8, Zelenskyy appointed General Oleksandr Syrsky, who had led two successful counter offensives, to replace Zalozhniy. Shortly after, Syrsky ordered the withdrawal of troops from Avdiivka, a key town in Donetsk, after four months of fighting. He claimed the retreat was essential to avoid encirclement, but it gave Russia its biggest battlefield victory since capturing Bakhmut in May 2023.

In 2025, Kyiv is implementing a contentious mobilization campaign to strengthen its military against Russia’s larger army, which is advancing in various sectors. The national police are conducting over 200 searches for Ukrainian men eligible for military service who have crossed the border illegally. The recently announced raids are part of a nationwide probe initiated last week, when Kyiv reported police searches at around 600 locations. The operation primarily targets those organizing schemes that aid draft evaders in illegally crossing the Ukrainian border. Police announced Friday that searches were underway in 19 regions, sharing images of armed officers entering what seemed to be private homes and offices.